Phoenix Home Prices Should Stay Flat
Aug 27th
Contrary to a lot of opinion most experts agree that Phoenix area home prices will remain flat into next year. According to a recent report issued by Arizona State University the Phoenix residential real estate market has taken three steps forward and one step back since March. As I have written on a number of occasions in this Phoenix real estate blog over the last few months I believe this market will remain fairly flat for at least the next 12 months. Does that mean we will have some down months?….YES. Does that mean when we have some down months we run around screaming “the sky is falling”…. NO. But that is the way most of the media reports it, I just shake my head. As ASU reports we saw three straight months of recovery and then in July faltered some. This is to be expected in our recovery people, we are not going to recover in a congruent, straight line up, won’t happen, never has!
The ASU Repeat Sales Index was at “0″ for July and will probably remain at “0″ for the rest of the year, this is according to professor Karl Guntermann of ASU’s W. P. Carey School of Business. The “0″ recorded for July of this year means that prices in the Phoenix area were the same price this July as they were in July of 2009. Guntermann states he thinks metro area prices will remain flat for the next twelve months. Guntermann also says “while the improvement seen over the past eighteen months isn’t likely to continue, there also is no evidence that house prices will resume a downward trend contrary to some published reports.” He also states that the Phoenix area housing market is far more stable this July than it was in July 2009. So everybody take a deep breath and calm down.
Check out the chart below of the Repeat Sales Index for the last year. If we can answer any questions or assist you in your Phoenix investment property goals please contact us above by clicking the button in the above navigational bar. Hope to hear form you soon!
MONTH MEDIAN PRICE REPEAT-SALES-INDEX
August 2009 $126,500 (-25)
September 2009 $130,000 (-23)
October 2009 $131,000 (-20)
November $135,000 (-17)
December $132,500 (-13)
January 2010 $125,000 (-9)
February 2010 $127,000 (-7)
March 2010 $132,000 (-3)
April 2010 $135,000 1
May 2010 $132,000 3
June 2010 $133,000 2
July 2010 $129,00 0
The Phoenix Housing Market | July 2010
Aug 12th
Phoenix Fixer Upper:) cobalt123 via Flickr
OK… ASU released its Phoenix housing report for July and it’s about what we were expecting with a slow down in resales and an uptick in foreclosures. Home sales for Maricopa County (single family detached) in July posted at 5,080 which is down from the July 2009 number that came in at 7,300, fairly substantial drop. Bottom line, to put it simply, people aren’t buying houses right now like they were last year. What else can I say other than I know stricter lending standards do play into this equation. There is a little bit of a bright spot in the report though… the median home resale price was up this July compared to last July. This years price is $137,500 with a July ’09 median price of $135,500. The $137K price is down though if you compare to the June 2010 number which was $143,000. One of the biggest hurdles in this market is the non-existent move up buyer. Many homeowners want to move up to a larger home but can’t because they have no equity in there current home so therefore cannot sell to move. It’s a vicious cycle we are in. Many of the buyers in this market right now are first time home buyers. As far as foreclosure activity goes for Phoenix it was about the same from June to July at just over 3,800 foreclosures for each month. Stay tuned right here for more Phoenix housing market developments and if we can answer any questions or be of assistance in acquiring Phoenix investment property please don’t hesitate to contact us!
Phoenix Pre-Foreclosures See Big July Increase
Aug 4th
- Image via Wikipedia
We saw a big jump in the valley pre-foreclosure numbers for July. The numbers just released by Information Market, a real-estate research firm, shows July figures increased a whopping 33%. There were 7,800 notice of trustee sales issued in July compared to 5,800 in June, that’s the biggest increase that we have seen in over a year. It normally takes about six months for pre-foreclosure filings to effect the actual foreclosure market. Why the big increase? Could be due too several factors. More homeowners could be doing a “strategic foreclosure” and simply walking away even though than CAN afford the monthly payment. Some of it could be partially due to the new illegal immigration law and undocumented residents are leaving the state. And some of this could be due too lenders dumping more of their “shadow inventory”. We will see over the next few months how this may or may not effect the Phoenix real estate market as far as prices go. Actual foreclosure filings increased somewhat in July also. Actual Phoenix foreclosures remained fairly static as the valley saw 4,650 foreclosures in July compared to 4,600 in June. Stay tuned for future Phoenix real estate market updates. Lets hope that these increased numbers have a minimal effect on our already “battered” Phoenix real estate market!
Are 2010 Phoenix Home Prices Holding Up?
Jul 26th
During the past month Phoenix home prices have slipped slightly but they are still way above the low in March 2009. As I have said in previous posts this is not unusual and the Phoenix home market will not rebound on a straight line up but rather “zig zag” on its rocky road to recovery. Last week the average per square foot price for a home in Phoenix fell to $89. That’s down about 4% from the previous month square foot price of $92. The low for the Phoenix metro area was recorded Spring of 2009 and hit $82 per square foot. Pending sales forcasts show us we might have another small drop next month. Several reasons account for the Summer downturn of which one is the increase of short sale activity. Last month 28% of the areas sales where short sales. Although short sales typically are better for the market than foreclosures they still help in holding the market down. Resold foreclosure home prices have fallen almost 7% in the last 30 days, probably because we have a higher inventory of bank owned foreclosed homes on the market right now. Another reason for the drop is traditional home sales (not short sale or foreclosure sales) have dropped nearly 30% in the last month. The federal home buyer tax credit that has expired is also a big reason for the decline and we saw, and expected this. Last but not least the new Arizona immigration law (SB1070) could be having an effect on our housing market. Again, in my opinion, we will continue to see this up/down housing market action for the next 12 – 18 months and then start to gradually see an upturn in this market. I do not have a crystal ball and will be very curious to see as the months go by if my predictions come true! If you are in the market for Phoenix investment property, a second Winter home or any real estate in the Phoenix metro area please don’t hesitate to contact us, we’re here to help or answer any questions you may have.
Phoenix Housing Market Update-July 2010
Jul 12th
The latest housing numbers for the Phoenix area were just released and although there are mixed signals the market does continue to settle. It remains somewhat difficult to determine the effect of homebuyer tax credits and loan modification programs. New home sales have dropped slightly but the median home price has gone up a little. While the recent number of foreclosures climbed slightly the number of foreclosures sold by lenders didn’t. According to Information Market there were 4,900 foreclosures last month which is about a 20% increase. In the “next breath” the number of pre-foreclosures fell 5% to 6,170. The overall pending foreclosures for the Phoenix metropolitan area fell to 42,324 which is a 6% drop. After a small increase earlier this year new home builds have slowed a bit. For the month of May there were 570 new single family home permits issued for the Phoenix area which is down from the 604 that were issued in April. On the bright side new home builds are up over 50% compared to 2009! There were a little over 800 new home sales in May which was about the same number we saw for April. We probably saw a fairly good sized boost in new home sales because of the homebuyer tax credit and the new home market could continue to slow some. The median single family detached home price for May was $130,000 which was an increase of approximately $2,500 compared to April. According to ARMLS projections we will see a small decrease in median price for the next couple of months and then start climbing again in September. Foreclosure homes accounted for almost 40% of all sales in May which is a good sign for our market, last year at this time foreclosures accounted for over 60% of all sales. There is still talk of “shadow inventory” held by some banks with the possibility of these being dumped on the market to quickly which could put pressure on holding prices. If we can be of any assistance in helping you with your Phoenix real estate investing goals please don’t hesitate to contact us today!
Deep Pocketed Investors Bull on Phoenix Real Estate Market
Jul 7th
- Image via Wikipedia
A Seattle Company owned by Micrsoft co-founder Paul Allen is very bullish on the Phoenix commercial real estate market. So much so that they just purchased the Gateway building in downtown Tempe for $35 million dollars. The purchase of the eight story building at Mill and 3rd is the first purchase in the Valley by Vulcan Real Estate and according to a Company spokeswoman is looking to buy more property in the depressed market. According to Lori Mason Curran “We see Phoenix as an area with good growth prospects” and “We see that the area is poised for a rebound and we think it’s a good time to get into this particular market”. Over the coming months Vulcan will lease out space in the vacant building that was developed buy Phoenix based Opus West. The developer filed chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2009. Other developers are also starting to see the opportunity in the Phoenix real estate market. A lot of banks are wanting bad assets off the books by the end of the year which gives the investor with capital opportunity to restore and lease these properties. University of Arizona’s Eller College of Management predicts population in the Valley will climb at an increasing rate over the next four years. While looking at growth over the next 10 – 20 years there is currently tremendous value. If you are interested in Phoenix investment property click any of the corresponding links you see to the right. Please don’t hesitate to contact us if we can be of assistance or answer any questions.
